Harsh truths for China and USA in Copenhagen

Both countries have warned that there are still too many stumbling blocks to be overcome before they can enter into the kind of commitment necessary.

The main reason for the calling of a summit at this stage is that the Kyoto Protocol is already 12 years old and the targets set out during that round of climate change talks only took us to 2012.

Many scientists are suggesting that the targets need to be radically overhauled to be more ambitious, more inclusive and not just focus on reduction of emissions, but mitigation also.

While a fully binding treaty looks like an impossibility, the likelihood is that Copenhagen will at least provide an opportunity to set out a general agreement that all countries can sign up to, with some of the details to be worked out later.

The consensus is now that a rise in temperature of 0.7 degrees Celsius has already been seen since pre-industrial times and that carbon already emitted is likely to lead to a 1.5 degree increase overall.

Should a positive outcome be reached in Copenhagen, scientists argue that it may still be possible to cap temperature rises to 2 degrees, which will stave off the worst effects of global warming.

The problem is that in order to achieve this outcome, most experts suggest that carbon emissions will have to reach their peak within 15-20 years.

Add to this all the uncertainty surrounding the possible effects of external natural factors such as the absorption capacity of the oceans, what will happen when ice caps melt and how the atmosphere responds to increasing carbon concentrations and it is easy to see why there is still a lot of prevarication.

However, the mood appears to have changed universally in the last couple of years and it is a fair bet that we can at last see some movement on technology sharing with developing countries to mitigate the worst effects of climate change including adaption measures such as better sea defences, securing new fresh water supplies and growing new crop varieties that can withstand excessive temperatures, resist drought or can tolerate flooding conditions.

I shall watch with interest to see what pledges are made as a result of Copenhagen.

Whatever happens I think this could be the start of something much bigger and an inevitability that energy will become much more expensive over the next few years.

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